<P>62The Military Engineer ? July-August ? 2010 volcano Eyjafjallajokull demonstrated, natural disasters can have a devastating effect on supply chains critical to global commerce. One recent study analyzed the economic consequences of multiple levee failures caused by a large earthquake. It predicted, among other calamities, ship- ping to the Port of Stockton would shut down, and disruptions of power and road transportation lines would occur. The total cost to the economy, over ?ve years, was estimated at $30 billion to $40 billion. The Four Ss The Sacramento Delta levees have become increasingly unstable. Unfortu- nately, with more than 200 existing fed- eral, state and local agencies claiming ju- risdiction over delta issues, remediation response has been painfully slow. Yet, a consensus has emerged citing Four Ss as the cause of delta problems: seismic, subsidence, species and salinity. Seismic. One of the most signi?cant threats is seismic activity; and seismic fore- casts are alarming. According to DWR, A seismic event is the single greatest risk in the Delta Region. The DWRs Delta Risk Management Study goes further to indicate that a major earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater in the vicinity of the Delta Region has a 62 percent probability of occurring sometime between 2003 and 2032. Subsidence. Subsidence, or loss, of soil around the levees is a concern in the delta because it undermines structural integrity and increases water pressure on levees, thus increasing the probability of failure. The earthen levees, many built during the 1860s, are comprised of peat soil and ma- terial dredged from local rivers and canals, which is now known to be susceptible to subsidence. As a result, more than 50 of the deltas marsh islands are sinking at a rate of 1-in to 3-in every year. Species. Once-thriving native plants and wildlife are diminishing due to through- delta conveyance, according to The Na- ture Conservancy. Native ?sh species like the delta smelt and Chinook salmon are at an all-time low. These declines ripple through the natural ecosystem and criti- cally affect commerce. For example, partly due to low river levels, commercial salmon ?shing off the coasts of California and Or- egon has been shut down for the past two years, causing losses of nearly $300 million and devastating ?shing communities. Salinity. Salinity threatens the potability and taste of water supplies, the productiv- ity of farmland and the viability of organ- isms within aquatic ecosystems. A levee failure during low ?ow conditions could al- low salt water to ?ow up the delta from the San Francisco Bay and destroy the regions ecosystem and freshwater supply. During one incident, an island was ?ooded under low-?ow conditions, and chloride levels reached 440-parts per million (ppm) at the Contra Costa Canal intake—a mea- sure well above the California standard for drinking water of 250-ppm. Walking a Tightrope Fervent debate among issue groups has slowed progress. With many plants and wildlife under protected status, levee system repairs are constrained and chal- lenging. To further mitigate the impact to endangered species, some groups are ad- vocating for increased limitations on water diversions to the south. On the economic front, reduced water conveyance has driven unemployment in many agricultural areas as high as 27 percent, according to Califor- nia labor force data. There is no silver bullet to repairing the Sacramento Deltas environment or cre- ating sustainable conveyance. There are, however, currently three project options under consideration to address the water conveyance issue: s East Conveyance Alignment: The east- ern alignment conveyance option runs along the eastern edge of the delta and includes 19 new bridges, 49-mi of ca- nals, four short tunnels, eight siphons and 730 acres of forebay. s West Conveyance Alignment: The west- ern alignment conveyance option runs along the western edge of the delta and includes 20 new bridges, 34-mi of ca- nals, 17-mi of long tunnels, 12 siphons and 720 acres of forebay. s All-Tunnel System: Some argue that the all-tunnel system, which would divert water through a 43-mi-long tunnel un- der the delta to south of the San Francis- co Bay, would best protect the environ- ment and secure Californias fresh water supply. Advocates say it leaves a smaller footprint and is more economically fea- sible than the east and west conveyance proposals. Bridging Troubled Waters Given Californias budget crisis, ?nancing delta improvements could prove dif?cult as constituencies compete for scarce re- sources. While economic interests such as sport ?shing and agriculture advocate for enhanced conveyance, environmentalists, pitted against each other, argue for pres- ervation of plants and animals. Represen- tatives from the state and federal govern- ments must answer to each constituency. Despite the rancor, Californias legis- lature took a step in the right direction in passing the Comprehensive Water Pack- age, which set requirements for future delta governance, enacted conservation policy, triggered groundwater elevation monitoring and improved delta water di- version accountability. This package also memorialized the Co-Equal Goals for reliable water supply and ecosystem con- servation. A Collaborative Approach A collaborative approach—from poli- cymaking to funding—will be critical to saving Californias San Joaquin Delta. On the federal side, advocates must work with federal of?cials to identify suitable grants and appropriations. At the state and local levels, ?ood management agencies must work together to coordinate funding re- quests and promote policy that meets the states goals for water infrastructure programs. It also will be critical to develop economic incentives to encourage private investment. Water departments must make the case to their customers that restoring the delta should be a top priority through public involvement and educational outreach programs. Given the dire consequences of inaction—irreversible environmental dam- age, loss of drinking water for 25 million people, compromise of the worlds eighth- largest economy, transportation interrup- tions and loss of land, homes and possibly even lives—the United States and the state of California cannot afford to delay. Rob Vining, M.SAME, is National Water Resources Practice Leader, and Gen. Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.), is a member of the Board of Direc- tors and National Security Expert, HNTB Corp. They can be reached at 703-253-5905 or rvin- ing@hntb.com, or 703-824-5160 or brm@mccaf- freyassociates.com, respectively.</p> <UL><LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/1/1/">Front-Cover</a></LI> <LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/2/2/">Inside-Front-Cover</a></LI> <LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/3/3/">Page-1</a></LI> <LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/4/4/">Page-2</a></LI> <LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/5/5/">Page-3</a></LI> <LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/6/6/">Page-4</a></LI> <LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/7/7/">Page-5</a></LI> <LI><a href="http://www.stallionpublishers.com/publication/609/tofzxaosm/8/8/">Page-6</a></LI> <LI><a 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